ATP Barcelona matches analyses for trading 23/4/14

Today I was able to follow 2 matches  on this tournament , which had a good live stream coverage .

The first one which had a shocking outcome for the spectators was the match between

David Ferrer and Teymuraz Gabashvili.

You may know already that Ferrer is ranked as number 5 currently in ATP  and Gabashvili is ranked 55 and face to face is 2/0 for Ferrer.

Now here we had starting odds 13 and 1.040. That is 13 for Gabashvili and 1.040 for Ferrer. I’m sure that even if you don’t follow tennis much you know that Ferrer is one of the best clay court players in the world and is playing home in Spain. So it looks like  a sure win  for him.

Well, one thing that we must remember that Tennis as any sport can be very unpredictable.

What it means, that no matter how good the player is there is always a chance that something would turn a sure winner by bookies into a sure loser. Its called life and its complexities .

Well , and the other thing we must remember is that like in any trading what we are looking for and what we are  taking advantage of is this unpredictability and surprise plus if you know your trading market well you can forecast and make even a bigger killer .

Now lets look what happened here in this match.

Game one went to serve Gabashvili and took it to 15

Then  game 2 Ferrer serving

0/15

0/30

15/30

15/40

Gabashvili brakes  Ferrer serve  strait away, which is a surprise.

Game 3 Gabashvili serve

15/0

30/0

40/0

40/15

Game Gabashvili, so he confirms his break and odds now 1.2 on Ferrer and its 3/0 for Gabashvili

So here we  back Ferrer on these odds since he is to be bounce surely back soon and odds will go down on him and up on Gabashvili and then we back him too and have a clear  profit .

Game 4 Ferrer is serving

15/0   1.2 – 4.33

15/15

15/30; 1.25 – 4

15/40; 1.3 – 4

30/40

40/40; 1.2 – 4

40/A   1.28 3.5

40/40 and then Ferrer managed to take the game to 40 and he  is on the board now and its 3/1

Ferrer   breaks in game 5 and odds now change to 1.05   for Ferrer and 8.5 for Gabashvili

So we can now back Gabashvili quickly and we have a profit regardless who wins.

 Calculation are like this when Ferrer is on odds 1.2 we back for example £1000 (this is up to you how much you want to start with, more information about choosing the right amount and more you find in my book on  Amazon

1000×1.2=1200, now we calculate what odds Gabashvili need to be to back him and make a profit.

1200-1000=200, 1200/200=6. So we need odds to be just above 6 on Gabashvili before we back him too and make a profit regardless the outcome.

We have these odds by the end  of game 5 when Ferrer breaks back and odds are 8.5 on Gabashvili. So 1200/8.5 = 141

We therefore making a clear profit £59 regardless who wins.Nice one.

Important note. You must remember we are trading not gambling so always back both players not just one, because you will be punished and lose.

Indeed Ferrer lost the match in 2 sets 6/4  6/2 , but thanks to this trading system you would come out as a winner .

The second match I was following  and which had a good live stream coverage was between

F.Verdasco and  K De Schepper

Starting odds were 1.11 on Verdasco and 6.5 on Schepper

Kenny was serving first and without problems won his serve odds did not go up on Verdasco much for us to take advantage yet

Game 2 Verdasco also holds his serve easily.

Kenny with some difficulty takes game 3 on his serve again.

Now in game 4 on Verdasco serve, Verdasco find himself down 15/40 and odds up on him 1.25

Its time to make the first part of our trade and back Verdasco.

He comes back and when its 40/40 odds on Schepper go up to 6 and we back him too quickly and have clear profit of £42  again regardless who wins and that is only in game 4 first set.

Verdasco taken game 4 and odds on Schepper went to 7.5 so even higher. Again if you want to know more about this trading system read my book Its important to learn the right stages of trading and also when its not good to trade at all.

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