ATP Mutua Madrid matches/trading opportunities 05/05/14

First match of the day was between Marius Copil  and Marcel Granollers ,where we had starting odds 4.33  – 1.2 . Granollers here was a clear favourite since ranked 30 in ATP and Copil 164. However I watched Granollers playing last week in Portugal in quoter finals against Gimeno -Traver who was ranked 98 and Granollers played a very very poor match losing 6/1;6/2 . I was then a bit unsure if it would be a good idea to follow this match today and see if there is a trading opportunity. Copil started with his serve in game one and took it to 30. Granollers on the other hand went down first 0/30;15/30;15/40 – here the odds came up to 1.4 on one of the bookies  and then to 1.53 when Copil broke Granollers in game 2. We could had back Granollers here now since he broke back start away and odds on Copil jumped to 3.4 and Granollers went down to 1.25 after game 3. So we would had again made a  profit if we would had used the trading system used in my guide book and sticked strictly to my rules outlined there. Reason is that if you would not then you would put yourself into a risky situation . Granollers after game 3 went on to lose the match 6/3;6/4 playing again very poorly

 

Second match I was following was between Ivan Dodig and Kei Nishikori who won a week ago as a first Japanese player in Barcelona . Dodig is ranked 39 in the world and Nishikori 12. Nishikori playing very well lately on clay was a clear favourite  for this match with starting odds 1.12 agains Dodig 6. Nishikori broke Dodig start away in game 1 and confirmed the break with his serve in game 2. So his odds did not come up and we didn’t really had opportunity to use my trading system in this match.  Nishikori won the match 6/4;6/4

Third match I followed today was between Teymuraz Gabashvili and John Isner. Isner is ranked 10 in the world and Gabashvili 53. However Isner did not play much on clay this year a lost at the beginning of April in Houston where he was defending champion in second round to Dustin Brown who was ranked 101 . The bookies felt unsure about placing odds for today match and the night before it was 1.83 – 1.83   . However just before the match starting odds adjusted in Isner favour  2.05 – 1.7 Isner can have a great serve . He started  to serve first and went down 0/30 odds reversing to 2 on Isner. Here would be the time to back Isner since his starting odds come up. He did  recovered quickly and taken the first game to 30 and odds going back to 1.7 on him. We now would need to wait for Gabashvili odds to go higher a bit just above 2 before we would back him to and make a profit. Gabashvili won his serve  and Isner serving and leading 40/15 when odds now on Gabashvili 2.2 which would be good enough for trading. Isner won the match 7/6;6/4

Forth match I followed between Mikhail Youzhny and Benjamin Becker . Youzhny ranked  16 and Becker 67. Here Youzhny considered obviously a favourite with starting odds 1.22 against Becker’s  4 .  Here Youzhny served game one and took it easily and he also broke strait away Becker’s serve so starting odds did not come up on Youzhny and no opportunity arrived for us to use the trading system.

Fifth match I followed was between Fernando Verdasco and Andreas Seppi. Verdasco leads in head to head 6/1 and is ranked slightly better on 25 place against Seppi’s 34  in the world. Starting odds were  1.36 – 3 so Verdasco a favourite in this match.  Verdasco served game one and won it to 30 and broke Seppi in game 2 which he then confirmed with his serve ,therefore also in this match the starting odds of the favourite player did not come up so we don’t trade .

 

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